Early prison releases begin as abuse survivors fear for their safety

The first prisoners have left under England and Wales’s new release model. One survivor says her former partner is eligible; the exact date and conditions in his case have not been confirmed.

The Progression Model began on 1 October, with the Ministry of Justice estimating about 700 releases on its first day.
The government’s estimate of 4,500 covers the first days of ten release tranches through June 2027—not every early release during the period.
Domestic-abuse-related convictions are not covered by a general exclusion from the scheme, though eligibility depends on the sentence and offence.
Survivor Mollie Cousins says she was told her former partner Daniel Bowler is eligible. The Independent has not reported that he was released on 1 October or confirmed his individual licence terms.

Prisoners were seen leaving HMP Durham and HMP Cardiff on Thursday as England and Wales began the first tranche of its new Progression Model. The Ministry of Justice’s figure of about 700 is a rounded estimate, not a final count of those released that day.¹²

The model changes when some people serving standard determinate sentences can leave custody. It does not apply to everyone: sentence type and offence exclusions matter. The government has excluded specified offences, including rape, certain child-sex offences and unlawful killing, but has not created a general exclusion for domestic-abuse-related convictions.²³

The 4,500 figure is the modelled total for the first day of each of ten tranches scheduled from October 2026 to June 2027. The framework is intended to be permanent, with eligible releases continuing between those tranche dates. The government says it is part of its response to pressure on prison capacity.²

The effects are personal for Cousins, 29, from Lancashire. The Independent reports that her former partner, Daniel Bowler, received a five-year sentence in December 2025 after convictions including controlling or coercive behaviour, assault, strangulation, harassment and criminal damage. Cousins told the paper she fears he will retaliate. She has a lifetime restraining order against him and says she has moved house and changed her car and her eldest child’s school.⁴

Cousins told the Independent that a victim liaison officer informed her in June that Bowler would be eligible for early release. That report does not give a confirmed release date or specify his licence conditions. The Ministry of Justice says conditions are set according to individual circumstances. They can include restrictions on contacting a victim, where someone can live or go, and electronic monitoring; victims in the Victim Contact Scheme can make representations about proposed conditions.⁴⁵

Those released under the model serve the rest of their sentence on licence, under probation supervision, and can be recalled to prison. The government says electronic tags are presumed unless unsuitable. But an inspection briefing based on 180 cases involving electronic monitoring found that only 55% of GPS and radio-frequency tags were fitted promptly, and sufficient attention was paid to protecting actual or potential victims in 45% of relevant cases. The inspectors warned that monitoring can create false reassurance without active oversight. Their findings concern monitoring practice generally, not Bowler’s case or this release tranche specifically.⁵⁶

Women’s Aid reported that all respondents to its survey of member services supporting survivors affected by the scheme said women feared for their physical safety; 78.9% reported fears for children’s safety. The charity did not give the number of respondents on the page reporting those results, so they describe the services surveyed rather than a representative survey of all survivors.⁷

The Ministry of Justice announced that a national Victim Support helpline and new licence restrictions came into force on 1 October. Those safeguards set out the government’s approach; the available reporting does not establish the release date or specific restrictions in Bowler’s case.⁸

Early prison releases begin as abuse survivors fear for their safety

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