Ofgem cap rises tomorrow as January price forecast reaches £1,999

• Ofgem’s confirmed cap rises 4% on 1 October, to an annualised £1,723 for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit.
• The BBC reports Cornwall Insight now forecasts a £1,999 annualised benchmark for January—£276 above October’s figure.
• Ofgem has not set January’s cap. The final figure is due in November.
• Cornwall Insight’s public forecast page still lists £1,872 for January, based on market data from 25 August.

The October increase applies to default tariffs in England, Scotland and Wales. The £1,723 figure is what a typical household would pay over a year if the October rates held for all 12 months; it is not a limit on a household’s total bill. The cap restricts suppliers’ unit rates and standing charges, so actual costs depend on how much energy a household uses, where it lives and how it pays.¹

The BBC reported overnight that Cornwall Insight’s latest January estimate is £1,999, using Ofgem’s revised typical-consumption values. That is an annualised benchmark, not a prediction that every household will pay that amount. The BBC’s figure is £276, or about 16%, above October’s benchmark.²

There is a gap between that new estimate and Cornwall Insight’s public forecast page. Last updated on 23 September, the page gives a January figure of £1,872 and says it uses market data from 25 August. It sets out a typical-use basis—2,500 kilowatt hours of electricity and 9,500 kilowatt hours of gas a year—and says its forecasts apply Ofgem’s method to wholesale prices and the forecaster’s estimates of other costs. The underlying calculation for the BBC-reported £1,999 estimate was not publicly available on that page.³

So the £1,999 figure is attributable to Cornwall Insight through the BBC, but readers cannot compare its inputs directly with the older published forecast. Neither number is Ofgem’s decision. Cornwall Insight says the January cap will not be confirmed until November; until then, wholesale prices and other costs can change.³

Footnotes

1. Ofgem’s October price-cap rates and explanation of what the cap covers. ↩

2. BBC News report; the article text was also available in this BBC-attributed Yahoo reproduction. ↩

3. Cornwall Insight’s public forecast page and 26 August forecast release. ↩ ↩²