UK-France small-boat returns pilot set to expire on 1 October

• The pilot is due to expire on 1 October under an extension agreed by the UK and France in June.¹
• France says the two governments are discussing how to exit; a UK source told The Guardian the deal was expected to be formally wound down on Thursday.²³
• The scheme paired returns to France with an equivalent number of admissions to the UK through a legal route.⁴
• The Home Office’s published figures record 1,087 returns to France and 1,117 transfers to the UK through 30 June 2026.⁴

The UK and France have not publicly announced a final termination or a replacement deal. But with the expiry date a day away, the reported talks are about winding the arrangement down, not extending it. France has said it does not want to carry the policy alone and favours a wider agreement with the European Union, according to Le Monde and The Guardian.²³

The scheme was designed as a reciprocal exchange: the UK could return eligible small-boat arrivals to France, while admitting an equivalent number of eligible people from France. The June extension, published by the UK government, runs through 1 October.¹⁴

Its expiry would end this particular exchange mechanism and its associated admissions route. It would not, by itself, end wider UK-France border cooperation. Nor would it immediately stop every removal: The Guardian reported that flights for people already detained under the scheme were expected to continue for weeks. The original agreement also says cases remain covered if a readmission request or admission application was received before the termination period expired.²⁵

The published Home Office count is lower than the more than 1,400 returns reported by The Guardian. The official series covers activity only through 30 June: it counts completed returns, not referrals or requests, and counts a person only once even if they are returned more than once. The figures therefore describe a defined period and measure, rather than a full tally through September.²⁴

The deal was meant to deter dangerous crossings and disrupt smuggling networks. Small-boat arrivals were reported at 19,135 between 1 January and 27 September, 42% below the same period a year earlier. But that fall does not establish that the pilot caused the change: the Home Office says its evaluation is ongoing and it is too early to identify significant effects on migrants’ intentions.²⁶

Footnotes

1. UK-France exchange of letters extending the agreement, published by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. ↩ ↩²

2. Rajeev Syal, “UK-France ‘one in one out’ deal to expire on Thursday, say sources”, The Guardian, 30 September 2026. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵

3. Véronique Chocron and Stéphanie Le Bars, “France to end ‘one in, one out’ immigration agreement with the United Kingdom”, Le Monde, 30 September 2026. ↩ ↩²

4. Home Office statistics on transfers into and returns from the UK under the agreement, 6 August 2025 to 30 June 2026. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

5. UK-France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys. ↩

6. Border Security Commander’s annual report 2025 to 2026, UK Home Office. ↩